A severe weather threat is expected to increase this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has indicated a high probability of watch issuance, at 95 percent. Storms have formed along a frontal zone, where moderate instability has developed.

The airmass is expected to continue destabilizing, with moderate to strong instability anticipated by late afternoon. This, combined with moderate to strong shear, may support initial supercells.

Damaging winds are expected to be the primary threat. Further details are available from the Storm Prediction Center's forecast products, including Mesoscale Discussion 2201.